Rise in nut prices
Dubai chocolate took the world by storm in 2023 after a viral video on the social network TikTok, and since then, the internet and stores have been flooded with this sweet treat, whose main ingredients are thin kadaif strips and pistachio cream. The craze has significantly impacted the pistachio market, with prices rising by dozens of percent in recent times. According to the Financial Times, British nut trader G.C. Hacking states that a pound (0.45 kg) of pistachios currently costs more than 10 USD, while a year ago it was around 7.65 USD.
A limited but desired indulgence
The chocolate first saw the light of day back in 2021, when it was introduced by Fix Dessert Chocolatier, a company based in Dubai. The chocolatier sells the original Dubai chocolate two hours a day, and it can only be found in the United Arab Emirates. Due to its huge success, other producers have jumped on the bandwagon, with prices varying depending on the manufacturer. Fix Dessert Chocolatier offers the product for approximately 16 EUR (68.25 AED), while Swiss manufacturer Lindt sells its own version in the United Kingdom for about 11 EUR. Demand is so high that, in addition to new pistachio cream-based products like Easter eggs, sales in the UK are limited to a certain number of pieces per person.
Half-empty warehouses
Due to the high demand, chocolate producers are unable to sufficiently meet the market — because of high prices and shortages of cocoa, and the declining availability of kadaif and pistachios. Global producers' stocks are starting to decrease significantly. Giles Hacking from G.C. Hacking told the Financial Times that the pistachio world is even significantly depleted. As a result, chocolatiers are reaching for higher-quality pistachios in open shells, which usually go directly to consumers, while products like pastes, oils, and others typically use only lower-quality nuts. The current situation was preceded by a smaller and higher-quality harvest from the largest grower — the USA. According to the American Pistachio Administrative Committee, the volume of deliveries in California fell by 25 percent (as of March 2025) to 280,121 tons compared to 373,953 tons the previous year. The second largest producer in the world, Iran, exported 10,141 tons of pistachios to the Emirates over the past 6 months of 2024/2025, according to the Iranian Pistachio Association — a 46 percent increase from the previous year. For comparison, during the entire 2023/2024 year, it was just under 6,940 tons.
The Nut Dilemma
In light of these events, farmers are switching to growing almonds, which require more water but are a cheaper alternative. Pistachios, on the other hand, demand specific climates such as those found in California, Iran, and Turkey, and it can sometimes take almost 10 years before they yield a harvest. Other countries like Pakistan and Spain are joining these ranks, with the latter having approximately 80,000 hectares of pistachio fields. Trade tariffs could also pose a problem, although according to Javier Moreno, CEO of Mister Pistachio, they may not affect Spanish producers to a significant extent. The Fresh Plaza portal writes that thanks to their high quality, Spanish pistachios are preferred within Europe, but it may also happen that buyers turn their attention to Iranian and Turkish pistachios.
