Trouble in the air: Will airlines stay the course upwards?

The European Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (EBACE), an annual conference focused on private aviation in Europe, was held in Geneva. It brings together aircraft manufacturers and service providers from the industry. This year, the hottest topic is sustainability in the context of reduced flight activity due to lively commercial traffic. In addition, the pressure to adopt greener practices is increasing.

Europe is facing criticism from regulators and activists because it produces excessive emissions. According to Transport and Environment, the amount of CO2 produced by private aircraft increased by 31 percent between 2005 and 2019. A solution to this problem should be the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.Spokesman Roman Kok said that the private aircraft sector is often a source of innovation adopted by commercial transport. The tight economic situation is causing a decline in demand for private jets as they are more of a luxury than a necessity. Data from WINGX shows that the number of business flights in Europe is down by around 6 per cent compared to the same period in 2022. Moreover, aircraft manufacturers are still struggling with a shortage of parts that persists as supply shortages persist.

Ryanair expects a good summer season

Ryanair, the European airline that carries the most passengers among all aviation permeators, reported strong full-year profits and moderate optimism for the period ahead. Annual profit after tax was €1.43 billion, beating experts' forecasts. During the peak summer season, CEO Michael O'Leary expects the company to profit from increased ticket prices. He says people will holiday in droves after the pandemic period and ticket prices could rise by double-digit percentages, although he is not sure if this will be in the range of 20-30 per cent as expected by competitors. [1] He seems unconcerned about lower interest from holidaymakers due to high inflation and the falling cost of living.

Increase in flight numbers

The carrier may gain more from rising fares due to plans to operate 25 per cent more flights than before the pandemic in the peak summer months, when European short-haul capacity is expected to be 5 to 10 per cent lower than before the pandemic. The winter months will present a challenge for the company, but in the long term the Boeing deal promises significant growth. [2] In recent years, Ryanair Holdings shares have been uncertain, mainly due to the pandemic period. The company has finally weathered the tough times and has big plans for its fleet in the future. Since the beginning of the year alone, the stock has rose by more than 34 percent. *

Snímek obrazovky 2023-05-25 v 21.56.21

Ryanair's share performance over the last five years. (Source: Google)*

The end of the alliance between American and JetBlue Airways

American and JetBlue Airways, unlike Ryanair, struggle with negative news. A federal judge has ruled that the airlines' cooperation must end within 30 days. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, the partnership leads to higher prices for consumers and significantly reduces competition in the domestic transportation market. The ruling is a victory for the Biden administration's emphasis on airline industry consolidation. The companies are understandably disappointed by the decision and are thinking about next steps to keep them afloat, which will be difficult as the Justice Department has filed a separate lawsuit against JetBlue over its acquisition of Spirit Airlines. On the other hand, American Airlines pilots enjoy the positive news. The APA, the union that represents American pilots, has reached a tentative agreement on the issue, and their revised contracts will give them a 21 percent pay raise.

Olivia Lacenova, chief analyst at Wonderinterest Trading Ltd.

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[1,2] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or on the current economic environment, which may change. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements.

This text constitutes marketing communication. It is not any form of investment advice or investment research or an offer for any transactions in financial instrument. Its content does not take into consideration individual circumstances of the readers, their experience or financial situation. The past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future results.

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